The Monty Hall problem

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the other 2, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” In other words and the question you have to answer – is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

1200px-Monty_open_door.svg.png

This is The Monty Hall problem – a brain-teaser in the form of a probability puzzle. Have a go at it yourself, or if you’re having trouble you can find the solution here.

We often have trouble deciding whether to change our minds in real life too. Especially when we have invested a lot in our original decision.

Sometimes however, we must give up on the original plan and realise it makes more sense to switch.

One thought on “The Monty Hall problem”

  1. Hi Kieran, unfortunatly this kind of problem will only happen in games. This is a lottery. No matter of calculating probility. One door is good, the others not. It seems to be, that you can calculate the risk, but you can´t. When one door (the wrong one) is open, the situation have not changed. You still have the chance to pick the wrong door. It´s a dilemma.
    Now, in real life, when you must or have to make decisions, there is a method called
    FORDEC. We do it for decades in aviation business( you know, I´m a pilot).
    1. FACTS( What´s the problem?)
    2. What kind of OPTIONS do I have?
    3. Where or what are my RISKS and BENEFITS?
    4. And then finally the DECISION
    Nothing happend until now, until
    5. EXECUTION
    But this is not a oneway-road, because we have another point. The C.
    6. CHECK
    We can check, whether the plan leads or have lead to the solution or not.
    And we can act flexible, maybe to choose another option.
    So we start again with No. 2
    Sometimes this FORDEC takes only seconds, sometimes minutes.
    Sometimes there is only one option.
    If you have a plan, you are able to change the plan.
    Flexibility is the key to success.
    That´s why this FORDEC method is brilliant for real life.
    Unfortunatly useless for picking doors in a game.

    Thank you for your blog.

    I wish you a nice sunday.
    Many regards
    Lutz

    Liked by 1 person

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